The median Ellis County house that sold was built in 2021, and 64.3% of sales closed with the seller paying something back. It is the newest and the most concession-heavy market in everything I measure.
Ellis County runs south-east of Fort Worth down I-35E and US-287. Waxahachie, Midlothian and Red Oak are a straightforward run; the eastern side of the county adds time, and the fee reflects it.
The median Ellis County house that sold was built in 2021. Across 10,303 closed single-family sales, 64.5% were built in 2015 or later.
For scale: Denton County, which is not a slow-growing place, runs 50.9%. Crowley, the newest market in Tarrant County, runs 63.0%. Arlington runs 9.7%. Ellis is further through its build cycle than any county in this analysis.
| Year built | Sales | Median price | Median $/sf | Median size | Median days to contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 1980 | 1,005 | $274,510 | $173 | 1,614 sf | 42 |
| 1980–1999 | 1,091 | $365,000 | $198 | 1,884 sf | 37 |
| 2000–2014 | 1,568 | $385,000 | $187 | 2,211 sf | 40 |
| 2015 and later | 6,639 | $443,950 | $181 | 2,458 sf | 73 |
The same inversion as everywhere else in this region, and sharper. The newest houses carry the lowest rate per foot at $181, below the 1980s and 1990s stock at $198. And they take 73 days to contract against 37 — roughly double.
A county median of 59 days therefore describes neither cohort. It is an average of a fast older market and a slow new one.
This is the finding that should change how a Ellis County comparable grid is built.
64.3% of Ellis County sales closed with a seller-paid amount. Compare Denton at 55.9%, Azle at 58.6% and Arlington at 52.8%. It is the highest county figure in the dataset, and on a market where nearly two thirds of the inventory is new construction that is not an accident — it is how the inventory is being moved.
The consequence is simple and easy to miss. The recorded close prices in this county systematically overstate what sellers actually netted. Because the practice is close to universal here, it does not stand out from the data on its own: every comparable looks normal relative to every other comparable, and the whole grid sits high together. The full treatment is in what the sticker price hides.
If you are a seller looking at recent sale prices on a portal and wondering why your net looks different, this is most of the answer.
Ellis is unusual in being suburban-new and genuinely rural at the same time. 20.8% of sales sit on an acre or more and 2.4% on five acres or more — four times the acreage share of Denton County.
| Lot size | Sales | Median price | Median $/sf | Median days to contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under a quarter acre | 6,090 | $370,945 | $175 | 64 |
| A quarter acre to an acre | 2,092 | $429,000 | $182 | 48 |
| One to five acres | 1,872 | $576,400 | $219 | 59 |
| Five acres and up | 249 | $700,000 | $281 | 64 |
The per-foot rate climbs from $175 on the small lots to $281 above five acres — a 61% difference inside one county and one appraisal district. A rate borrowed across that boundary is not an adjustment, it is an error.
And the data needs checking before it is used. The MLS acreage field is populated with the square-foot figure instead on 11.3% of Ellis County records — the second worst rate of any county I measure, behind Johnson at 13.2%. Every lot figure on this page is derived from the square-foot field.
A workshop or shop building appears on 4.3% of sales here and an accessory dwelling on 2.5%, both well above the suburban counties, and neither is described usefully by the record. What a workshop adds covers why.
Across 14,638 resolved listings, 29.6% failed; measured by address it is 16.3%, on 1.22 listings per address. But the interesting number is the time, not the rate.
| Price | Closed sales | Median days to contract | Listings that failed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $300,000 | 1,966 | 42 | 26.2% |
| $300,000–450,000 | 4,130 | 49 | 26.7% |
| $450,000–650,000 | 3,116 | 92 | 30.0% |
| $650,000 and up | 1,091 | 69 | 38.5% |
A median 92 days to contract between $450,000 and $650,000 — longer than the band above it and more than double the band below. That is 3,116 closed sales, so it is not a thin-sample artifact.
It is where the new-construction inventory is concentrated, and it is the clearest illustration on this page of why a county-wide exposure time is not a usable figure. A report that assumes 59 days for a $550,000 Ellis County house is understating the real marketing period by a month.
If this is an estate or a date-of-death valuation, the concession problem has to be addressed explicitly rather than ignored, because nearly two thirds of the available comparables carry one. The reasonable exposure time should come from the relevant price band and build era, not the county median — 92 days between $450,000 and $650,000, 37 for the older stock.
If this is a divorce, the contested value is usually either the land or the difference between two near-identical new houses. Both are the parts the record describes worst.
If this is a tax protest, the district works the same uniform housing with mass appraisal and does it reasonably well. The arguments that land are about lot differences, acreage, and concessions inflating the comparable set — which is what an individually developed opinion can isolate.
If you are selling, know that two sales in three around you closed with the seller paying something back, so the prices you are comparing yourself against are not what those sellers kept. And if you are between $450,000 and $650,000, plan on three months rather than two.
Acreage
“He came and walked the entire acreage and spent a few hours on site. He is a wealth of information and you can tell he thoroughly does his research. True value can be very hard to determine at times.”Leigh Gilliland · Google review
Yes. Ellis County is part of my coverage along with Tarrant, Parker, Johnson, Hood and Denton. Assignments are one-to-four unit residential and residential land, consistent with a Texas Certified Residential credential. Waxahachie, Midlothian and Red Oak are a straightforward run from Fort Worth; the eastern side of the county adds travel time and the fee reflects it.
$415,000 across 10,303 closed single-family sales over three years, at a median 59 days to contract and a median lot of 9,365 square feet. The county figure masks a wide split: the median house that sold was built in 2021, and the pre-1980 stock runs a median $274,510 against $443,950 for anything built since 2015.
64.3% of closed sales carried a seller-paid amount, the highest county figure I measure, against 55.9% in Denton and 52.8% in Arlington. Nearly two thirds of the inventory here was built since 2015, and concessions are how new-construction inventory is being moved in this market. The consequence for valuation is that recorded close prices systematically overstate what sellers netted, and because the practice is close to universal here it does not stand out from the data on its own.
A median 59 days to contract county-wide, but the spread is wide and the county figure is not usable on its own. Houses built between 1980 and 1999 go under contract in a median 37 days; houses built since 2015 take 73. By price, the $450,000 to $650,000 band runs a median 92 days across 3,116 sales — longer than the band above it and more than double the band below.
Regularly. 20.8% of Ellis County sales sit on an acre or more and 2.4% on five acres or more, four times the acreage share of Denton County. The per-foot rate runs from $175 on the small lots to $281 above five acres, a 61% difference inside one county, so a rate carried across that boundary is an error rather than an adjustment. Note also that the MLS acreage field is populated with the square-foot figure on 11.3% of Ellis County records, so lot sizes have to be derived rather than trusted.
It depends on the property, the assignment and where in the county it sits. Acreage with outbuildings takes longer on site and longer to research than a subdivision house. I quote a written fee and a firm delivery date before any work begins, usually within one business hour, and the fee is never contingent on the value reported.
Written fee quote, typically within one business hour. Send the address and the reason you need the value — estate, divorce, tax protest, pre-listing — and I will confirm the fee and a delivery date before any work starts.
Would you rather not type it out? Call or text (817) 903-4509.