- Appraisal district
- Erath County Appraisal District, Stephenville
- Cities and communities
- Stephenville, Dublin, Bluff Dale, Hico, Lipan, Morgan Mill, Huckabay
- Character
- County seat and home of Tarleton State University; dairy and ranch country beyond the city limits
- New construction
- 12.6% of closings built 2023 or later — the lowest share of any county in this research
- Market size
- About 450 closings a year, the thinnest market I work in
- Property types I appraise
- One-to-four unit residential and residential land only
What the Erath County market actually did, 2023–2026
Measured from 2,486 Erath County listings on 1,764 addresses — every residential listing in the MLS over three years, whether it sold or not. Erath is the smallest market in this research and the only one that behaves nothing like the rest.
- Flat volume, three years running. 452 closings, 442, then 451. Erath is not growing.
- But it is the only county here where price per foot rose. $190, $191, then $201.
- Almost no new construction — 12.6% of closings. Everywhere else it is 30–40%. That is why prices rose: nothing is being added.
- 37.8% of listings failed; 27.0% of houses never sold.
- The widest gap between sellers who succeed and sellers who fail anywhere in this research. Houses that sold opened 5% above market. Houses that failed opened 22% above.
- Above $750,000, 54.9% never sold. Above twenty acres, 53.7%.
| 12 months ending | Sold | Listings that failed | Rate | Median price | $/sqft | CDOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | 452 | 221 | 32.8% | $335,000 | $190 | 41 |
| October 2025 | 442 | 305 | 40.8% | $329,000 | $191 | 59 |
| October 2026 | 451 | 293 | 39.4% | $349,000 | $201 | 58 |
Sales held flat at roughly 450 a year while listings rose from 673 to 744. About seventy more sellers tried each year and the same number succeeded. Days on market went from 41 to 58 and stayed there.
The price rise is the interesting part, and it arrived after the market slowed, which is the opposite of the usual order. The explanation is on the supply side: with only 12.6% of closings newly built, Erath is the one county around Fort Worth that is not absorbing a building boom. Scarcity held the price up while the clearing rate fell.
Two ways to count a failure
2,164 listings reached an outcome and 819 ended without a sale — 37.8%. Those listings sat on 1,764 distinct addresses, 18.0% of which were listed more than once — the least relisting of any county in this research.
| Measure | Failed | Of | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listings that ended without a sale | 819 | 2,164 listings | 37.8% |
| Houses that never sold at all | 477 | 1,764 addresses | 27.0% |
Only 28% of failed listings were at an address that later sold — against 40–41% in Hood, Johnson and Parker. In a thin market a failed listing is far less likely to be rescued by a second attempt, and the two measures sit closer together as a result.
The clearest overpricing signal in five counties
Across five counties and three years, the houses that sold opened at about 5% above the price per foot the market was actually paying — Johnson 5%, Hood 5%, Parker 5%, Wise 6%, Erath 5%. The consistency is remarkable given how different these markets are.
The failures are where they diverge, and Erath is the extreme: houses that never sold opened at 22% above market — $235 per foot against the $193 that transacted. In Granbury the equivalent gap is 7%.
Which makes Erath the county where the ordinary advice does the most work. A Stephenville seller opening within about 5% of supportable value is behaving like the houses that sell. One opening a fifth above is behaving like the houses that sit for 160 days and expire.
Stephenville, Dublin and Bluff Dale
| City | Addresses | Listings that failed | Houses that never sold | Median sold | CDOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bluff Dale | 149 | 37.6% | 18.1% | $432,450 | 76 |
| Stephenville | 1,232 | 34.2% | 24.3% | $320,000 | 49 |
| Dublin | 264 | 46.6% | 35.2% | $249,500 | 56 |
Stephenville is three quarters of the county and sets its character — a county seat and university town where the median house sells in 49 days, the fastest in the county. Dublin, sixteen miles southwest, fails at 35.2% on a $249,500 median: cheaper and considerably harder to sell. Bluff Dale, on the Hood County side, has the best clearing rate at the highest median, which reflects a different buyer entirely.
Those are three distinct markets inside one appraisal district, and the gap between Dublin and Bluff Dale — 35.2% against 18.1% — is wider than the gap between most counties.
Price tier and acreage
54.9% of Erath County houses asked above $750,000 never sold — a median sale price of $1,150,000 for the minority that did. The sweet spot is $250,000 to $350,000 at 18.6%.
Unusually, land up to five acres does not hurt a sale here at all — 21.1% on one to five acres, essentially the same as a town lot. This is ranch country and a few acres is ordinary. Past five acres it changes quickly: 32.9% on five to twenty, 53.7% above twenty, and Farm/Ranch properties failed 49.4% of the time.
Erath County has the cleanest lot records in this research. Only 1.4% of listings carry an acreage field that disagrees with the square-foot field, against 3.3% in Wise, 3.9% in Parker, 6.6% in Hood and 13.2% in Johnson. Lot figures here are computed from the square-foot field regardless, for consistency.
What this means if you own a house here
The opening ask carries more weight in Erath than anywhere. Five percent over market is what sellers who succeed do; twenty-two percent is what sellers who fail do. There is no wider version of this signal in five counties.
A failed listing is unlikely to be rescued. Only 28% of failed listings were at an address that later sold. In a market this thin the first attempt is most of your chances.
Acreage is free up to about five acres and expensive past it. Twenty-plus acres fails 53.7% of the time.
Do not read Dublin and Bluff Dale as the same county. One clears 18.1% of the time and the other 35.2%, sixteen miles apart.
Scope and how I work in Erath County
I appraise one-to-four unit residential property and residential land. Erath County is at the outer edge of my service area — Stephenville, Dublin, Bluff Dale, Lipan and Hico — and I take assignments there selectively, usually where the property type is one I have strong data on or where an existing client has a property in the county.
The constraint in a market of roughly 450 sales a year is comparable evidence. Erath has the thinnest data of any county I work in, and on an unusual property it is genuinely possible that the supporting sales do not exist. Where that is the case I will say so before accepting the assignment.
Fee and delivery date are quoted in writing before any work begins, and the quote accounts for the drive and the additional research a rural market requires.
Common questions
What percentage of houses sell in Erath County?
Across the three years to October 2026, 37.8% of resolved Erath County listings ended without a sale — 819 of 2,164. Those listings sat on 1,764 distinct addresses, 18.0% of which were listed more than once, and 27.0% of those addresses never sold at all. Only 28% of failed listings were at an address that later sold, the lowest rescue rate in this research, which means a failed listing in a market this thin is unlikely to be saved by a second attempt.
Are Erath County house prices rising?
Price per square foot rose from $190 to $191 to $201 over the three years to October 2026, making Erath the only county in this research where it rose. Sales volume was flat throughout at about 450 closings a year, and days on market rose from 41 to 58. The likely explanation is supply: only 12.6% of Erath closings were built in 2023 or later, against 30 to 40 percent in the surrounding counties, so the county is not absorbing the new construction that is holding prices down elsewhere.
Does overpricing cause listings to fail in Erath County?
More clearly here than anywhere else measured. Houses that sold opened at a median 5% above the price per square foot the market was actually paying. Houses that never sold opened at 22% above — $235 per square foot against the $193 that transacted. That 17-point gap is the widest of five counties; the equivalent gap in Hood County is 2 points. The 5% figure for successful sellers is consistent across all five counties within a single point.
Is Stephenville a different market from Dublin?
Yes, and the gap is large. Over three years 24.3% of Stephenville addresses never sold against 35.2% in Dublin, sixteen miles southwest, with median sales of $320,000 and $249,500 respectively. Bluff Dale, on the Hood County side, had the best clearing rate in the county at 18.1% on the highest median at $432,450. All three sit inside one appraisal district and should not be used as evidence about one another without adjustment.
- Source: North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) residential listing records for Erath County, 17 October 2023 to 15 October 2026. 2,486 listings on 1,764 addresses, of which 2,164 resolved — 1,345 sold and 819 expired, cancelled or withdrawn. Listings still active at the end of the period are excluded from failure rates.
- Two failure measures are reported. The listing rate is the share of resolved listings that came off the market without selling. The property rate groups listings by street address and counts an address as sold if any of its listings closed; 18.0% of addresses carried more than one listing. Sold listings are counted on close date and unsold listings on status-change date, so both sides of every rate cover the same span.
- Opening ask comparisons use original list price per square foot against closed price per square foot, both medians, excluding records without a usable living area.
- Lot sizes are derived from the MLS square-footage field rather than the acreage field; 1.4% of Erath County listings carry an acreage field that disagrees with it.
- Cities and subdivisions are reported where at least 60 addresses resolved. Figures are aggregate; no individual listing, address, price or client is identified.
Market statistics describe past transactions in aggregate and are not an opinion of value for any particular property. Nothing here is an appraisal. Data supplied by NTREIS and believed reliable but not guaranteed; NTREIS does not warrant it and it may not reflect all market activity. Figures as at the date of publication.